Market update November 2014

Dec 10, 2014

Lisa

 

As the 2014 working year all too rapidly comes to an end, I think it is interesting to look back on the market performance year-to-date.

A quick summary below with market slides attached. If anyone would like the extended version (51 slides) please let me know and I will send this to them.

 

Local Markets: 

  • The best broad asset class for November was the SA Listed Property Index which returned 2.8%, just ahead of the ALBI (2.4%). Despite a tough January (-7.1%), the Listed Property is still ahead on a YTD basis with 25.3%.
  • The Financial sector did 3% in November and 26.2% YTD. The  Industrial sector returned 2.1% compared to the 3.7% in October. Resources is still struggling returning -10.6% YTD.
  • The ALSI closed on 49 911 and on the 23rd November it had its biggest one day move this year of 3.21%.
  • SA Equities (ALSI) still look expensive at a trailing PE of 17.0x.
  • Foreigners were net sellers of our Equities and Bonds in November.

Exchange Rates: 

  • The Rand managed to appreciate against the Euro and Sterling but depreciated against the US Dollar.
  • The Rand closed at R11.04  against the Dollar- weaker than the R10.87 in October.
  • The Rand closed at R13.79 against the Euro and R17.25 against the Sterling Pound. Closing price in October was R13.82 and R17.38 respectively.

Offshore Markets: 

  • Looking at Global Equity Markets, the ALSI returned 0.5% for November and managed to outperform Emerging Markets (-0.9%). Developed markets had a great month returning 2.2% for the month (In Rand Terms).
  • In USD terms the ALSI managed to return 0.4% for the month compared with a better performance then the 3.3% for the month of October.
  • The S&P 500 returned 2.7% and both the FTSE100 and Nikkei 225 had a positive month returning 0.9% and 0.5%.

Economic Development:

  •  SA PMI figures revised upwards to 60 and the US Supply Management Index indicates continued economic expansion.
  • Indonesia was the only ‘Fragile 5’ country to increase rates. They increased their rates with 25bps- first increase in a year.

Commodity prices:

  • US$ Gold price continued downward trend. Closing price was $1 167/ounce for November.
  • Oil price decreased further from $ 85/barrel to $ 73/barrel.
  • Platinum Rand price continued to decrease R 14 680/ ounce in September to R 13 566/ounce end October and closed on R13 267/ounce.